The US is holding discussions with Turkey, Ukraine, and neighboring countries of Kyiv to increase the utilization of alternative export routes for Ukrainian grain, according to American officials. This comes after Russia exited an agreement that guaranteed food supply security through the Black Sea.
Supported by the USA, the plan involves boosting Ukraine’s capacity to export four million tons of grain per month via the Danube River by October. A significant portion of this grain was transported downstream along the river and through the Black Sea to nearby ports in Romania before being further shipped to other destinations. While this route will be slower and more expensive, it will serve as an alternative to the Black Sea shipping corridor, established last year in an agreement with Russia, Turkey, and the UN.
Russia withdrew from the agreement in July, halting Ukrainian exports from three ports around Odessa and initiating an escalation of conflict in the Black Sea. In recent weeks, Russian forces launched waves of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian ports and on Sunday boarded a commercial ship heading to Ukraine.
The Western plan for alternatives to the Black Sea grain initiative demonstrates how the USA, Ukraine, and European countries are preparing for a scenario in which Russia does not join the agreement in a timely manner, in order to accommodate Ukraine’s summer and autumn harvests.
“The reality is that Russia has decided to attack global food supply, and until it thinks it has finished its attack, it will be difficult for it to turn them back,” said a senior American official in Washington.
The grain agreement is considered critically important to support low global food prices, as Ukraine is the largest exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. According to the State Department, after Russia’s exit from the Black Sea agreement last month, food prices have increased by 10%. According to the United Nations, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is one of a series of crises that have pushed millions of people around the world closer to hunger in recent years.
Efforts to increase Ukraine’s export opportunities via the Danube are happening in parallel with Turkey and the UN’s efforts to persuade Russia to return to the grain agreement, officials say. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped achieve the agreement last year, is under pressure to restore the deal before Ukrainian grain starts accumulating in early September, diplomats say.
The USA is considering all potential options, including military decisions, to protect ships heading to and from Ukrainian Danube ports, said a Washington official, but declined to provide details about these options or which countries would be involved. “We’ll consider everything,” the official said regarding the efforts to protect shipping routes.
US officials discussed these efforts with leaders of Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania – members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – at a meeting in the Romanian city of Galati on Friday, according to the State Department. Later, Romania’s Transport Minister told journalists that his country would double its grain export capacity to four million tons per month. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests to comment on this week’s negotiations with the USA.
The USA’s plans partly rely on the European Union’s initiative to create “solidarity tracks,” involving road, rail, and maritime routes, to facilitate the transportation of grain and other cargo to and from Ukraine.
In the first months of the war, the European Union developed a plan following agreements on automotive transportation that simplified transit for carriers between Ukraine, Moldova, and the EU without permits. Since then, the EU has invested in a range of infrastructure projects to create faster export routes and expedite customs procedures.
Last month, European Union Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski stated that within a few months, the solidarity routes of the bloc could potentially replace all of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain routes.
EU officials say that in their estimation, the bloc could potentially allow Ukraine to export between 5 to 5.5 million tons of grain on average per month if everything goes smoothly. The largest achievement from the EU’s perspective so far was 4.2 million tons of Ukrainian grain exported in November. In June, Ukraine exported 3 million tons through the EU initiative. The Danube route constitutes a significant portion of this export, approximately 60%, according to EU officials. At its peak, the Black Sea grain initiative allowed Ukraine to export around 6 million tons per month from three ports around Odessa last year.
However, the solidarity routes also face difficulties, including staffing and resource shortages for conducting necessary sanitary and customs checks on incoming cargo on some routes; disputes with Romania over dredging the navigational channels in the Danube Delta.
Nonetheless, these efforts “will not replace Black Sea ports, especially Odessa, and so it’s not a solution; it’s really an interim alternative,” said Erin Elizabeth Mackey, Assistant Administrator for Europe and Eurasia at the USAID Bureau, during a briefing this month.
Since the rupture of the grain initiative, the Danube route has been the sole means of grain export via the Black Sea for Ukraine, with small vessels often delivering grain to ports in Romania, Bulgaria, and other countries for further shipment to the global market.
Russia has threatened to block the Danube route, attacked, and continues to attack the river port of Izmail, and boarded a ship with a Turkish crew heading to a port on Sunday. According to video footage of the incident released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on Tuesday, armed Russian soldiers landed a helicopter on the ship’s deck and questioned the crew. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the interception as a “provocative action.”
Russia has threatened all commercial ships heading to Ukraine. Military analysts say that this is an attempt to freeze civilian ships heading to and from Ukrainian ports.
However, today, what many have been waiting for finally happened. The bold crew of the container ship JOSEPH SCHULTE, under the flag of Hong Kong, left the port of Odessa today. Onboard is more than 30,000 tons of cargo (2,114 containers), including food. So let’s see if Russia dares to disrupt yet another provocation on the path of this ship.